近期在准备同济大学高等讲堂的讲座，写了一页材料关于AI对软件工业影响的预测：
- 大部分编程工作不再需要手工编写代码；
- 程序员从配电脑到配AI；
- 非科班出身有机会参与一些简单、业务驱动型软件的开发；
- 软件研发流程依然有效 – Agile, DevOps, Platform Engineering；
- 想象力、创造力和好奇心变得更加重要；
- 研发岗位边界打破，一人多岗成为可能；
- 前端和测试用工需求减少；
- 项目周期和交付成本快速降低；
- 核心业务系统所依赖的业务能力和关键技术能力（如基础运维）还需要人类专家；
- 程序员工作收入可能会降低；
- 计算机专业大学生在当前培养模式下获得持续能力提升的可能性在降低；
- 循规蹈矩的985毕业生可能面临来自脑子活络的双非毕业生的挑战。
English Translation:
Impact of AI on Software Industry
Recently, I have been preparing for a lecture at Tongji University’s Advanced Lecture Series and wrote a page of material about my thoughts on the impact of AI on the software industry in the near future:
- Most programming work will no longer require manually writing code;
- Programmers will shift from equipped with computers to equipped with AI;
- People without a formal computer science background will have opportunities to participate in the development of some simple, business-driven software;
- Software R&D processes will still be effective – Agile, DevOps, Platform Engineering;
- Imagination, creativity and curiosity will become more important;
- The boundaries of R&D roles will be broken, and it will become possible for one person to take on multiple roles;
- Demand for front-end development and testing engineers will decrease;
- Project cycles and delivery costs will decrease rapidly;
- The business capabilities and key technical capabilities on which core business systems depend (such as IT infra Operation) will still require human experts;
- Programmers’ incomes may decrease;
- With the current education system, the likelihood that computer science university students will achieve continuous capability improvement at campus is decreasing;
- Rule-following graduates from 985 universities (top universities in China) may face challenges from more quick-witted graduates from non-985/non-211 universities.
